Predictive storm surge

Modeling the ice sheet dynamics in Antarctica

Estimating the location and height of the storm surge during a hurricane is critical for making decisions about emergency preparations for evacuations. Storm surge predictions are also needed to inform billion-dollar decisions on building new coastal protection infrastructure.

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Oden Institute Computational Hydraulics Group

Preparing for and responding to disaster

The state of Texas alone has had more than 100 >$1B disasters since 1980. There is a critical need to integrate pre-, during- and post-disaster data to aid in decision-making for longer-term resilience engineering, such as billion-dollar decisions on where & how to build coastal protection.

Data alone cannot provide the information needed to drive these decisions. But when integrated with physics-based models, we obtain a valuable predictive model that can support decisions about emergency preparations for evacuations and about disaster recovery.

These physics-based models solve for time dependent free surface circulation and transport, including modeling tides and wind-driven circulation. Given environmental conditions and topography, these models predict storm surge and flooding.

Tropical wind field data, social media data & satellite images Mathematical model of surface circulation & transport, tides & wind Predictive model of storm surge and flooding as a function of environmental conditions and topography Convergence